Investment

Investment Outlook Q3 2018

by James Macpherson

At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard for a company with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes that you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years I can maintain my current revenue rate….what were you thinking.

Scott McNealy, CEO of Sun Microsystems at the time of the dotcom crash when the shares were selling at 10 times sales.

Scott McNealy

At mid-year world bond and equity markets have struggled, with bonds delivering a slightly negative return and equities fell 1.3% as measured by the MSCI World Index, a poor return given that S&P earnings are estimated to increase by 25% this year (largely thanks to the tax cut at the end of 2017). Emerging Markets have been particularly poor performers. The reason is that liquidity has been tightening. In the US, quantitative easing is being steadily drained from the system at a rate of $30 billion a month, which rises to $40 billion from July 1st, and then $50 billion on October 1st. The oil price has risen about 30% over the past year, which results in a severe drain of liquidity. Labour markets have also been tightening creating some wage pressure and with inflation measures trending higher, bond yields have risen. On top of all this investors have been unnerved by a number of political developments, most obviously the trade disputes as the Trump Administration has now specified particular areas against China and Europe, and in Europe an Italian political crisis has threatened the stability of the Eurozone. The US tax cuts achieved at the end of last year, are a clear positive for the stock market, representing a substantial infusion of cash to shareholders. However tightening liquidity, the threat of protectionism and inflation are unfriendly for markets, and constitute significant headwinds. Together they have made the outlook for financial assets much more murky than was the case a few months ago. All markets have been buoyed on an ocean of liquidity for the past few years, so as that is removed a major support to asset prices disappears.

It is unusual to have trade wars when activity is expanding; generally they are a reaction to weak economic activity.

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Antonio Mira
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER, MEMBER OF THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

Antonio Mira joined NS Partners in 2006 as Group Chief Financial Officer. He heads the corporate functions and is involved in coordinating and implementing the decisions of the Executive Committee.
An experienced bank auditor, Antonio started his career in 1995 with Arthur Andersen, where he worked for some 7 years before joining Ernst & Young in 2002 as a Senior Manager.
Antonio is a Swiss chartered accountant and a Business graduate of Lausanne University (HEC).

Sébastien Poiret
DEPUTY HEAD OF WEALTH MANAGEMENT

Sébastien Poiret joined NS Partners in 2008 and manages funds of hedge funds and private client mandates. He also oversees the development of the Group’s offices in Mauritius.

Prior to joining NS Partners, he served as a Trader, Head of Manager research and Portfolio Manager in the USA and Switzerland for a single hedge fund (1998-2004) and for Optimal (2004-2008), Grupo Santander’s fund-of-hedge funds operations.

Sébastien holds a Bachelor’s degree in Corporate Finance from the ESPEME Business School (EDHEC Group) and an MBA in Finance and Economics from the Institute of Business Administration, both in Nice.

Abir Oreibi
BOARD DIRECTOR

Abir Oreibi joined the Board of the NS Partners Group in 2018, where she brings her truly international perspective and rich experience.
Among many other ventures, Abir set up Alibaba.com’s first European office. After living and working in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Bangkok and London, she now lives in Geneva, where she is CEO of Lift Events, an organization that identifies technology trends, their business and social impact through the organization of events and open innovation programs. Issues related to the challenges and opportunities created by new technologies as well as the strategic responses from organizations are at the heart of Lift’s activities.
Abir holds a BA in Political Sciences from the University of Geneva. She is an investor, and member of advisory and innovation boards.

Romain Pidoux, CAIA

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Romain Pidoux joined NS Partners in 2011 and heads the Group’s Risk Management.
He started his financial career in 2005 as Head of Quantitative Analysis for a Swiss Family Office, selecting funds and managing portfolio allocation. In 2008, he switched to the alternative world and joined Peak Partners as hedge funds analyst.
He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) and holds a Master’s degree in international relations from the Graduate Institute of International Studies at Geneva University.

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