Investment

Investment Outlook Q1 2019

by James Macpherson

Where are the gilets jaunes of the bond market?

As the various Central Banks peddle back on their quantitative tightening program the financing needs correspondingly grow.  Buyers will need to be found at a point when competition for debt is rising. Global debt has climbed by $100 trillion since the financial crisis and sits around $240 trillion. China has been a big buyer of US Treasury bonds in the last two decades but as its economy slows and reorients from an export model towards one more focused on domestic consumption it will want to keep its savings at home and will have less surplus funds to invest abroad. Likewise the energy-producing Middle East has a demographic boom, and with oil prices lower and an expanding social welfare budget it is having to come to the capital markets for financing, becoming a competitor for funds rather than provider of them.  Perhaps the greatest risk in debt markets lies in the corporate sector. US companies have been prolific issuers of new debt, much of it poor quality. The ‘investment grade’ market is far larger today than it was heading into the 2008 crisis. When a recession eventually arrives a lot of this debt will turn sour.

Investors face a problematic environment. Bonds are unattractive, and in some cases unsafe. This leaves equities as the best option, but the emphasis on careful stock picking has increased. Markets have had a strong quarter so a consolidation period should be expected.  There is attractive value in a number of areas but this will require patience to unlock. With the US market richly priced the longer term opportunity should be in Emerging Markets, but this is unlikely to be realised until the US China trade dispute has a resolution.

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Antonio Mira
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER, MEMBER OF THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

Antonio Mira joined NS Partners in 2006 as Group Chief Financial Officer. He heads the corporate functions and is involved in coordinating and implementing the decisions of the Executive Committee.
An experienced bank auditor, Antonio started his career in 1995 with Arthur Andersen, where he worked for some 7 years before joining Ernst & Young in 2002 as a Senior Manager.
Antonio is a Swiss chartered accountant and a Business graduate of Lausanne University (HEC).

Sébastien Poiret
DEPUTY HEAD OF WEALTH MANAGEMENT

Sébastien Poiret joined NS Partners in 2008 and manages funds of hedge funds and private client mandates. He also oversees the development of the Group’s offices in Mauritius.

Prior to joining NS Partners, he served as a Trader, Head of Manager research and Portfolio Manager in the USA and Switzerland for a single hedge fund (1998-2004) and for Optimal (2004-2008), Grupo Santander’s fund-of-hedge funds operations.

Sébastien holds a Bachelor’s degree in Corporate Finance from the ESPEME Business School (EDHEC Group) and an MBA in Finance and Economics from the Institute of Business Administration, both in Nice.

Abir Oreibi
BOARD DIRECTOR

Abir Oreibi joined the Board of the NS Partners Group in 2018, where she brings her truly international perspective and rich experience.
Among many other ventures, Abir set up Alibaba.com’s first European office. After living and working in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Bangkok and London, she now lives in Geneva, where she is CEO of Lift Events, an organization that identifies technology trends, their business and social impact through the organization of events and open innovation programs. Issues related to the challenges and opportunities created by new technologies as well as the strategic responses from organizations are at the heart of Lift’s activities.
Abir holds a BA in Political Sciences from the University of Geneva. She is an investor, and member of advisory and innovation boards.

Romain Pidoux, CAIA

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Romain Pidoux joined NS Partners in 2011 and heads the Group’s Risk Management.
He started his financial career in 2005 as Head of Quantitative Analysis for a Swiss Family Office, selecting funds and managing portfolio allocation. In 2008, he switched to the alternative world and joined Peak Partners as hedge funds analyst.
He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) and holds a Master’s degree in international relations from the Graduate Institute of International Studies at Geneva University.

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